Democrats hold 235+ House seats and 51+ Senate seats after the 2026 midterms
The current absolute gap is 0.3× the historical median for this mapped pair.
What the current disagreement tells us
Up to 1.5 pp of the current gap can be attributed to the combined half-spreads. The remainder is the observed residual divergence.
Latest aligned observations were 0s apart.
The pair has an established internal history.
resolution-source metadata is missing or differs between sources; source cutoffs differ by more than one hour; Kalshi: Democrats hold 235+ House AND 51+ Senate seats after the 2026 midterms. Polymarket market title: "Blue tsunami in 2026?" Resolution mapping should be reviewed against Polymarket rules.
Persistence tracks consecutive aligned observations with an absolute gap of at least 5 pp.
How the disagreement behaved over time
Did the gap tend to narrow?
Episodes begin when the absolute gap reaches at least 7 pp. We separate episode starts by 24 hours to avoid counting one prolonged divergence repeatedly. Closure is measured against the initial gap.
| Horizon | Episodes with follow-up | Mean closure | Median closure | Smaller gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1h | 1 | 5.6% | 5.6% | 100.0% |
| +3h | 1 | 74.5% | 74.5% | 100.0% |
| +6h | 2 | 49.0% | 49.0% | 100.0% |
| +12h | 2 | 71.9% | 71.9% | 100.0% |
| +24h | 3 | 58.2% | 45.0% | 100.0% |
3 qualifying divergence episodes observed; horizon counts above include only episodes with matched follow-up data.
Historical behavior is descriptive, not a forecast or guarantee.
resolution-source metadata is missing or differs between sources; source cutoffs differ by more than one hour; Kalshi: Democrats hold 235+ House AND 51+ Senate seats after the 2026 midterms. Polymarket market title: "Blue tsunami in 2026?" Resolution mapping should be reviewed against Polymarket rules.