Large cross-market divergence. Historical observations show that extreme gaps between these venues have often narrowed over time.
A measurable gap, but the two venues use different BTC price sources for settlement, so the divergence requires resolution review.
Persistent divergence, but settlement timing and resolution rules deserve explicit review before treating the gap as pure forecasting disagreement.
Raw divergence looks larger than the actionable gap. Bid/ask ranges explain much of the historical difference.
Divariance compares equivalent prediction-market questions across venues such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Current market odds are combined with historical divergence, market-quality context and resolution analysis so users can distinguish unusual disagreements from ordinary price noise.
Compare probabilities for the same underlying proposition across Kalshi and Polymarket without manually searching both platforms or deciding whether the contracts really settle on the same event.
Current odds are placed against the historical distribution of the same cross-market pair. Median divergence and high-percentile thresholds help separate unusual moves from normal differences.
Two markets can look equivalent while using different deadlines, sources or settlement rules. Divariance flags these differences before a large spread is treated as a meaningful signal.
It is a material difference in the probability assigned to an equivalent future proposition by two or more forecasting venues.
Divariance maps source-specific markets to a common proposition, compares their probabilities, checks resolution compatibility and adds historical context to the observed divergence.
Not necessarily. A spread can reflect liquidity, bid-ask ranges, information arrival, market structure or different settlement rules.
Divariance evaluates the current gap against the historical distribution for comparable markets. A gap above a high historical percentile is more unusual than a gap that regularly occurs between the same venues.