Bitcoin reaches $110,000 by December 31, 2026
The current absolute gap is 0.5× the historical median for this mapped pair.
What the current disagreement tells us
Up to 1.0 pp of the current gap can be attributed to the combined half-spreads. The remainder is the observed residual divergence.
Latest aligned observations were 1s apart.
The pair has an established internal history.
resolution-source metadata is missing or differs between sources; Kalshi: Bitcoin above $109,999.99 at Dec 31 2026 11:59 PM ET. Polymarket: Bitcoin reaches $110,000 by Dec 31 2026. Treated as equivalent threshold; wording differs slightly.
Persistence tracks consecutive aligned observations with an absolute gap of at least 5 pp.
How the disagreement behaved over time
Did the gap tend to narrow?
Episodes begin when the absolute gap reaches at least 7 pp. We separate episode starts by 24 hours to avoid counting one prolonged divergence repeatedly. Closure is measured against the initial gap.
Convergence analysis starts when the pair records a divergence of at least 7 pp.
Current sample: 232 aligned observations.
Historical behavior is descriptive, not a forecast or guarantee.
resolution-source metadata is missing or differs between sources; Kalshi: Bitcoin above $109,999.99 at Dec 31 2026 11:59 PM ET. Polymarket: Bitcoin reaches $110,000 by Dec 31 2026. Treated as equivalent threshold; wording differs slightly.