US CPI year-over-year is 3.4% in August 2026
The current absolute gap is 16.7× the historical median for this mapped pair.
What the current disagreement tells us
Up to 4.0 pp of the current gap can be attributed to the combined half-spreads. The remainder is the observed residual divergence.
Latest aligned observations were 1s apart.
The pair does not yet have enough internal history for a stable baseline.
resolution-source metadata is missing or differs between sources; source cutoffs differ by more than one hour; Kalshi: CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026. Polymarket: annual inflation is 3.4% in August.
Persistence tracks consecutive aligned observations with an absolute gap of at least 5 pp.
How the disagreement behaved over time
Did the gap tend to narrow?
Episodes begin when the absolute gap reaches at least 7 pp. We separate episode starts by 24 hours to avoid counting one prolonged divergence repeatedly. Closure is measured against the initial gap.
Convergence analysis starts when the pair records a divergence of at least 7 pp.
Current sample: 19 aligned observations.
Historical behavior is descriptive, not a forecast or guarantee.
resolution-source metadata is missing or differs between sources; source cutoffs differ by more than one hour; Kalshi: CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026. Polymarket: annual inflation is 3.4% in August.